Joey Goodsir’s college football picks for Saturday

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Joey Goodsir, Staff Writer

Now that November is in full swing with last week’s games and rankings reveal, the characteristics that make up November are actually present everywhere: cold weather with snow on the radar, and multiple loaded matchups in nearly every time slot. For this reason, the previews are gonna be by far the main focus this week, so let’s get to them as soon as possible.

But first….

About Last Week…

I went 7-1 (87.5%), which puts me at 73-29 (71.6%) overall.

To start the month of November, Week 10 brought us some confident statements by many teams.

Alabama came out of Death Valley not only victorious, but unscathed. This maintains Alabama’s top status and clinching of an SEC Championship appearance, while the LSU Tigers are brought out of playoff contention.

Clemson made their statement for the committee this week in a dominant performance, Notre Dame escaped from Evanston, with an undefeated record and playoff contention still very much intact, and Michigan dismantled Penn State in a beatdown Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor, positioning the Wolverines to slide up and into the top four.

Additionally, Georgia made their SEC East and edge-of-playoff statement with their win over Kentucky, and West Virginia knocked Texas far out of consideration, and kept their positioning solid. UCF remains undefeated this week.

Noon Game of The Week:

#10 Ohio State @ #18 Michigan State

When: 11:00 CT

TV: FOX

Rain (Above 40%)? No.

Where: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)

Series History: OSU 48-3 in 2017 (OSU leads 31-15 all-time)

 

With a a struggling defense deprived of a star player, and a very powerful yet one dimensional offense through ten weeks, as well as an ugly vintage Big Ten win over Nebraska (!) being the sole follow-up to a shocker at Purdue for recent performances, let’s just say that Ohio State may have deserved to be named the lowest ranked one loss team this past Tuesday.

The Buckeyes are sure not maintaining the style points they had earlier on in the season as they head into an environment that grants the ugliness of all ugliness: Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

This game is baited for analysts to be screaming “UPSET ALERT” in your face all week. On the flip side, it sets the ground for a major proving moment for OSU.

Let’s just see who they are up against…

Michigan State most recently pulled out important victories at Purdue and Maryland following their home loss to their biggest rivals.

The Spartans feature a defensive front that has dominated the rush but has been a culprit to passing faults.

Although Quarterback Brian Lewerke held a positive past reputation, things have gotten shakey recently with an atrocious 5 for 25 on passing attempts against Michigan, and an injury putting him out until Maryland last week, in which his numbers improved to 11 for 25. The rushing game gives no more reliable consistency, as MSU running back Connor Heyward has had low rushing yards, only exceeding one hundred (and by a significant margin) against the Terrapins last week.

Don’t get me wrong, this game would be an upset of no surprise. However, Sparty has to do a lot of work to get there, and I cannot and wouldn’t recommend putting confidence on it barring a sideways rainstorm, which is not on the forecast (who knows though, it is Pure Michigan weather to change last minute).

Talent will prevail if distraction and interferences are avoided, and the Buckeyes have that capability of being resilient. Don’t count on desired style points, but it will be a statement going into The Game, as well as other very important games (both involving and not involving the team itself) that could send Ohio State back into the playoff.

Ohio State Wins, 41-20

 

Other Noon Games of Note:

11:00 CT:

TCU @ #9 West Virginia (FS1)

Navy @ #12 UCF (ESPN2)

Afternoon Game of The Week:

Northwestern @ #21 Iowa

 

Quick Essentials

When: 2:30 CT

TV: FOX

Rain (Above 40%)? No, but potential snow (!)

Where: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

Series History: NU 17-10 in 2017 (Iowa leads 50-3-26 all-time)

Weird and fun timeline we’re in when Northwestern seems to have an increasing stronghold on the B1G West, and there is an afternoon game in Kinnick they are participating in which should get some national attention on a November Saturday. Wow.

The Wildcats feature a player that is the definition of a NFL Scout eye-catcher in quarterback Clayton Thorson, and an exciting NU team that is head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s 12th. They have a reputation of conservative play calling that is currently making some room for Thorson’s clutch first down passing capabilities.

If there is a team that can beat Northwestern in terms of conservative play calling however, it is any Kirk Ferentz Iowa team.

This year’s edition of the Hawkeyes has fallen behind on the Big Ten front due to recent tough conference defeats in Happy Valley and at Purdue. However, the committee still has them on their list due to staying in all of those games with consistent performance week in and week out. It is 100 percent a Kirk Ferentz team.

The line on this game (a 10.5 favoring of the Hawkeyes) has raised some serious eyebrows due to comparing the resumes, but key metrics support the superiority of this Iowa team, including yards per rush, limited scoring, and a forgetful defense.

This game will be a continuation of the vintage ugly B1G battle at noon. Northwestern will give it all they’ve got, and there will be moments that will leave Coach Fitzgerald in celebration, but that will fade away with silent execution from Iowa, as they leave this game under the lights at Kinnick with a win. Northwestern still has a lot to play for, including a conference championship game that will remain in the cards, but that does not penetrate an afternoon matchup in Iowa’s house.

Iowa Wins, 38-17

 

Other Afternoon Games of Note:

2:30 CT:

#16 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama (CBS)

Oklahoma State @ #7 Oklahoma (ABC)

 

Night Game of The Week:

#2 Clemson @ #17 Boston College

Quick Essentials

When: 7:00 CT

TV: ABC

Rain (Above 40%)? Nope.

Where: Alumni Stadium (Boston, MA)

Series History: Clemson 34-7 in 2017 (Clemson leads 16-2-9 all-time)

 

This night game brings another battle that analysts will be screaming “UPSET ALERT” all week.

Which not much competition since that early season armageddon in College Station, the Tigers have been rolling through the season. They have been conditioning themselves for their next big matchups, which supposedly do not come until late December.

And now, they have to enter into the environment of a ranked Boston College team that is living for an upset.

Besides the ranking, the resume of the Eagles remains pretty thin. They lost to Purdue and NC State, their chances at quality wins, and have swept the ACC field led by Virginia and Miami thus far, which isn’t bad, but not too impressive.

Additionally, the metrics do not show an upset is in the cards, with simply inferior stat margins in all aspects of the game. The best Boston College can hope for is a rowdy home environment at night leading to some early chaos, and this will happen for about a quarter, but will not be able to build from there.

This preview seems eerily similar to the noon game, and the difference here is that an upset would be a legitimately unexpected result, rather than the potential “upset” in East Lansing.

Clemson Wins, 55-20

 

Other Night Games of Note:

6:00 CT:

#24 Auburn @ #5 Georgia (ESPN)

6:30 CT:

Florida State @ #3 Notre Dame (NBC)

 

Late Game of The Week:

California @ USC

 

Quick Essentials

When: 8:00 CT

TV: ESPN

Rain (Above 40%)? It would be nice, but it’s LA.

Where: LA Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, CA)

Series History: USC 30-20 in 2017 (USC leads 70-5-29 all-time)

 

“PAC 12 After Dark” presents this battle at the Coliseum most prominently featuring the host squad. The USC Trojans are currently leading the South division of the conference, and will be taking on the fifth place team from the other one in this late homecoming matchup.

Regardless of Cal’s unimpressive standing on the surface, this game will be a key fragment of the USC season (in hopes of maintaining their position, securing a PAC 12 Championship appearance, and a potential Rose Bowl bid) and they will be prepared to take on the task.

The Trojans feature a productive offense to line up against a featured defense on this Golden Bears team, but have some setbacks in key offensive weapons in running back Stephen Carr and wide receiver Michael Pittman, and such losses set up to make this game more pivotal. These injuries will make things far closer than needed, especially when considering the undeniable advantage of the USC defense. This is a Trojan win with a tightened margin.

USC Wins, 23-10

 

Enjoy your Saturday, everyone!

 

Photo Courtesy: twistedsifter.com